It has been a very quiet week in the crypto market. A few cryptocurrencies were able to rise sharply, but a larger group fell at least as hard or got stuck. Volatility fell to its lowest level in a long time, a sign that investors are still very cautious in this macroeconomic condition. Still, a breakout could follow a long period of low volatility.
However, analysts are strongly divided on whether the breakout will be up or down. There is talk of a possible relief or bear market rally, but there are also fears that it will be short-lived as the macro continues to deteriorate. According to Bloomberg, the probability of an economic recession in the next 12 months is now 100%.
Bloomberg Economics prediction model now has 100% certainty of a recession in the next 12 months. pic.twitter.com/KZrJsnPFrM
— Graham Stephan (@GrahamStephan) October 23, 2022
Bitcoin miners are under even more pressure
Bitcoin (BTC) was especially remarkably quiet last week. Initially, the price rose to $19,600, but was rejected there. On Friday, bitcoin briefly dipped to $18,780, but overall, the price has been consolidating just above $19,000 for weeks. The BTC price at the time of writing stands at $19,175 on Binance and $19,450 on Bitvavo. The futures market is also very calm at the moment. Yesterday was apparently the dullest day in two years:
$BTC futures trading volume yesterday. Most boring day since October 2020. https://t.co/4w2VjhFYOP pic.twitter.com/QXpd4C5aB1
— Coinalyze (@coinalyzetool) October 23, 2022
However, there are signs that bitcoin miners may be in trouble. We have been reporting for weeks that miners are under heavy pressure and that pressure continues to increase. Two weeks ago, the so-called mining difficulty already to a new record, but in the meantime the hash rate to grow.
Hashrate as measured by a 30d EMA is at its all time high, this means that more mining machines are being turned on to confirm new blocks in the network.
The more computing power, the higher the security on the network, and the difficulty is also at an all-time high #BTC
— Gaah (@gaah_im) October 22, 2022
About 11 hours after publication, the mining difficulty will increase again by an estimated 4.1%. That means it gets even harder and more expensive for miners. They are already having a hard time because of the high competition, high energy costs and low exchange rates.
Miners have had to sell their reserves more often in order to keep going and we will probably see that again. However, this sales pressure is bearish for the bitcoin price. Analyst Maartunn reports that miners are already sending BTC from their wallets to exchanges.
Miners reserves have lowered because of sending transactions out of the wallets from miners.
This shows miners are moving their coins to exchanges, eventually to sell pic.twitter.com/nh2UUfez8M
— Maartunn (@JA_Maartun) October 22, 2022
Ethereum and the top 10 crypto
Ethereum (ETH) was able to recover somewhat stronger in recent days, so that the price currently stands at $1,308. This puts ETH up 2.6% this week. Still, there are somewhat worrying developments on Ethereum related to censorship:
.@Ethereum validators have increasingly chosen to use OFAC-compliant relays.
The number of OFAC-complying validators has increased to 52%, presenting a credible threat to #Ethereum‘s neutrality and censorship resistance. pic.twitter.com/6jf8z8hypk
— Messari (@MessariCrypto) October 22, 2022
The strongest crypto in the top 10 (without stablecoins) was polygon (MATIC) last week. The MATIC price is 4.8% in the plus this week and comes in at $ 0.83. However, cardano (ADA), solana (SOL) and ripple (XRP) are down more than 4% this week.
Crypto top 100 hardest fallers and risers
Terra luna classic (LUNC) was one of the biggest losers last week, falling nearly 13%. However, Ethereum name service (ENS) is falling even harder, losing nearly 17% of its value. Axie infinity (AXS) was the biggest loser, falling 18.5%.
Conversely, aave (AAVE) was up 15% last week, casper network (CSPR) up 17%, huobi (HT) up 22% and evmos (EVMOS) up a whopping 28%.
In the past 24 hours, ethereumpow (ETHW) rose 9.5% and klaytn (KLAY) even increased by 10%, but it is newcomer aptos (APT) that is currently stealing the show. The Aptos network launched early last week and APT made its debut on the exchanges a few days later. Initially, APT plunged more than 50%, but today the price is up 30% and is currently trying to capture $10.
Exclusive: Aptos asked major exchanges not to list perpetual contracts within 2 weeks, but Binance announced that APTUSDT perpetual contracts will be listed on October 19th. Aptos is urgently persuading Binance to stop. https://t.co/4ADxe1xSS8
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) Oct 18, 2022