Difficult pre-market puzzle and there are outliers and comedy capers again

Lastig puzzeltje voorbeurs en er zijn weer uitschieters en comedy capers

The AEX indication is +0.3% in one short stock market week, because America celebrates this week Thanksgiving and Black Friday. The markets are closed on Thursday and only half open on Wednesday and Friday.

  • European futures open just below and above zero
  • The US must return 0.4%
  • In Asia almost everything turns red with Hong Kong even -2.0. Tencent does -1.8% there
  • Volatility (CBOE VIX Index)
  • The dollar gains no less than 0.6% to 1.0260 and I don’t easily see why
  • Gold is down 0.3%, oil is down 0.9% and crypto is down by percentages, so more

Dollar lower, shares may be directionless and interest rates have to go back again, it is not a clear cut puzzle for the stock market.

The German (orange) and the US ten-year interest rates are still in an upward trend, but they are starting to lose momentum. This is getting more sideways.

And look at what just came through, you’ve never seen such a German windfall before.

Hopefully we can say that again this week with the first estimates of the purchasing managers indices, the most important macros this week. The consensus is slightly lower than last time. Just like the silent bear market that has been going on for so long now, we’re not heading for a ditto recession, are we? It could be.

The action is back on crypto today, here bitcoin (orange) and ethereum:

No news if I get it right quickly…

This review of the new FTX CEO, who is allowed to clean up the rubble, of his predecessor is already a stock market classic. Source is above:

With the festive season starting, we are actually closing the earnings season. For the rest of the year, we will do with the fixed round of macros and there are still interest rate decisions – this week there are minutes of the latest decisions from both the Fed and ECB. How are we doing market-wide with a bear market for a year?

These are the expected price/earnings ratios of a range of indices. Yes, under the pressure of interest rates, shares have become a lot cheaper. The AEX even almost half. With the rise in prices in recent weeks, shares have become more expensive again…

… because profit expectations are falling, they are really dribs and drabs. In the past, profits fell by 40% in a slight recession.

Vopak has a novelty with no financials and see if they can hold the upward omentum.

News, advice, shorts and agenda

The most important ABM Financial news since the Amsterdam closing yesterday.

  • 08:20 Walt Disney brings back Bob Iger as CEO
  • 08:10 German producer prices fall for the first time in a long time
  • 07:56 AEX probably starts trading week fairly flat
  • 07:27 DGB starts developing CO2 project in Uganda
  • 07:20 Vopak working with Petronas
  • 07:16 The Netherlands is investing more again
  • 06:58 Consumer slightly less pessimistic
  • 06:55 European stock markets are expected to open lower
  • 06:48 Stock market agenda: macroeconomic
  • 06:47 Stock market agenda: foreign funds
  • 06:46 Exhibition agenda: Dutch companies
  • 20 Nov Minutes and buyers on the roll
  • Nov 20 Trump back on Twitter
  • 08:20 Walt Disney brings back Bob Iger as CEO
  • 08:10 German producer prices fall for the first time in a long time
  • 07:56 AEX probably starts trading week fairly flat
  • 07:27 DGB starts developing CO2 project in Uganda
  • 07:20 Vopak working with Petronas
  • 07:16 The Netherlands is investing more again
  • 06:58 Consumer slightly less pessimistic
  • 06:55 European stock markets are expected to open lower
  • 06:48 Stock market agenda: macroeconomic
  • 06:47 Stock market agenda: foreign funds
  • 06:46 Exhibition agenda: Dutch companies
  • 20 Nov Minutes and buyers on the roll
  • Nov 20 Trump back on Twitter

The AFM reports these shorts:

Just a quick look, the price is moving wilder:

The agenda:

10:30 Alfen – Bava

22:00 Zoom Video Communications – US Third Quarter Results

06:30 Consumer Confidence – November (NL)
06:30 Investments – September (NL)
08:00 Producer prices – October (Germany)
14:30 Chicago Fed index – October (US)

Oh yes, Zoom: remember? That was one too… Say zoom in and out.

And then this

It make or break season for retailers is now approaching:

Weird recession share so much?

Reuters does not mention names:

Bloomberg does:

Surprising! A year after he left:

Dear God, how much does Elon Musk have on his mind? Should you also be able to…

Who is surprised?

Something with stranded assets

Bull market excesses always surface in the bear market:

Then the bouncer of bouncers, The Donald is allowed to tweet again from Elon, but still gets a raised thumb 🙂

Have fun and good luck today.