Before the fair we do it with turkey and large pigeon

Voorbeurs doen we het met kalkoen én grote duif

The AEX indication is 0.1%, the Fed is divisive and the US is closed today for Thanksgiving.

Normal is it true that there is not much movement on Damrak and the rest of the world, but it is 2022 and then you can expect everything. In any case, the start now is immediately the proverbial night candle, because very little happens and very little moves.

  • European futures open around zero
  • The Americans just keep going on a day like today, but are now standing still
  • In Asia, most markets are 0.5% to 1.0% higher
  • Volatility (CBOE VIX index) is -4.4% at 20.4, or just above the unofficial nervousness threshold of 20, which we have been above all year
  • The dollar is down 0.4% to 1.043
  • Gold is up 0.3%, oil is +0.1 to +0.3% after major debacles this week and crypto is up 1 to 3%, despite all the uncertainties in this market. A miracle in itself?

The interest rates also do without the US and it is now a bit of a search, given the pluses and minuses.

The Federal Reserve is less in a hurry to raise interest rates, the minutes of the last interest rate decision showed last night. Good for stocks, to sum it up as succinctly as possible. CNBC:

Federal Reserve officials expect to switch to smaller interest rate increases “soon,” according to minutes from the November meeting released Wednesday.
Some officials expressed concern about the impact rate increases could have on financial stability and the economy.
Markets have largely expected the Fed to dial down the intensity of its policy tightening, and the minutes helped confirm that.

Here are market expectations for interest rates for December next year, the furthest estimate. There was hardly any change yesterday. In that respect, the US inflation and interest rate story is now drawing to a close. The economy is a bit different. Also see the Purchasing Managers Indices yesterday, they are really slowing down.

These are the market’s inflation expectations for the dollar. Also here is the big one Sturm & Drang disappeared, but the percentages are still well above the target of 2%.

Here are the valuations (price/earnings ratios) of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 compared to the US ten-year interest rate. The indices have become cheaper, but historically they are certainly not cheap.

Yesterday after close, HAL had a quarterly update and the investment fund of course (given the portfolio) also reported significant declines. Only a miracle end-of-year rally can save the furniture this year.

The modest Envipco also has Q3s with record sales, but still losses and Azerion makes another acquisition. That’s it on the Damrak.

Finally, not every table in the US today has a turkey?

News, advice, shorts and agenda

The most important ABM Financial news since the Amsterdam closing yesterday.

  • 08:19 Kretinsky increases stake in PostNL to more than 31 percent
  • 08:16 Moneta Asset Management bigger in Ordina
  • 08:09 Substantial growth for Remy Cointreau continues
  • 08:08 Brussels wants to move derivatives trading from London to the EU – media
  • 08:00 Slightly lower start AEX expected on Thanksgiving
  • 07:45 Azerion takes over Italian AdPlay
  • 07:23 Envipco reports loss despite record turnover
  • 07:08 European stock markets open higher
  • 06:54 Contraction for Japanese economy
  • 06:50 Stock market agenda: macroeconomic
  • 06:49 Exhibition agenda: Dutch companies
  • 06:49 Stock market agenda: foreign funds
  • Nov 23 Stock market update: AEX on Wall Street
  • Nov 23 Wall Street closed higher
  • 23 Nov Oil price closed lower
  • Nov 23 Fed Considers Slower Rate Hikes – Minutes
  • Nov 23 Wall Street heads for a higher close
  • 23 Nov European stock markets closed higher
  • 23 Nov Net asset value of HAL decreases

The AFM reports these shorts:

The agenda with ECB minutes, Turkish basis points and the Ifo Geschaftsclima for November:

00:00 Envipco – Third quarter figures

02:30 Composite Purchasing Managers Index – November (Jap)
08:45 Business Confidence – November (Fra)
10:00 Ifo Business Confidence – November (Germany)
12:00 Turkish Central Bank – Interest rate decision (Tur)
13:30 European Central Bank – Minutes (eur)
2:30 PM Requests for Support – Weekly (US)
3:30 PM Wall Street closed for Thanksgiving

And then this

So so:

Bloomberg:

Heads are turning in the rates market as traders pile into positions that stand to benefit from a dramatic reversal in Federal Reserve monetary policy. The wager involves options tied to Secured Overnight Financing Rate futures over multiple tenors for next year and into 2024.

Over the past couple weeks traders have been active in call spread structures focused on 97.00 and 98.00 strikes, equating to policy rates of 3% and 2%, respectively.

For the lovers of monetary experiments:

This is problem anyway number one for Europe? No beginnings of a long-term strategy yet, such as China, for example, which buys gas from Qatar for 28 years, has one.

Boy o boy:

Hereby:

Have fun and good luck today.