Bitcoin tests 16,000, miners capitulate and price can quickly become volatile

Bitcoin test 16.000, miners capituleren en koers kan snel volatiel worden

Bitcoin (BTC) dipped to lows around $15,500 last week and then recovered back to the tight range between $16,500 and $16,700. Bitcoin held its own here until last night, but at midnight the price lost traction.

Bitcoin plummeted from $16,600 to $16,050, down 3.3% in 3 hours. Since then, the price has been pushing towards $16,200, but now seems to be breaking through. At the time of writing, the BTC price stands at $16,250 on Binance and $15,590 on Bitvavo.

This puts the bitcoin price down 1.8% today. The trading volume increased by 33% in the past 24 hours. The total market capitalization is $312 billion and the dominance is 38.0%. The Fear & Greed Index comes out at 28 (Fear).

More volatility this week for BTC

It was generally very quiet last weekend, but that was expected after Thanksgiving. However, more volatility is expected in the market again this week.

We have FTX hearings this week. FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried also speaks at The New York Times DealBook Summit. This is followed by a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

Also coming this week are European inflation data, US Core PCE and unemployment figures that could affect the markets. Meanwhile, Asian markets are already turning red amid new Covid concerns and protests against the extended lockdown. US premarket futures are also turning red.

Should bitcoin miners capitulate again?

Bitcoin miners are under heavy pressure this year due to the low price, high energy costs and high competition leading to a high hash rate and difficulty level. The miners have now sold all their reserves that they built up in 2022, CryptoQuant reports:

Analyst Kripto Mevsimi also reports that the hashribbon, an indicator that shows when miners may need to capitulate, is back at the same level as on June 6. Soon after, the price plummeted from the $30,000 area to the $20,000 area.

Bitcoin accumulation and/or distribution?

Small investors, the so-called shrimps with less than 1 BTC, have been increasing their BTC holdings since the FTX crash, analytics firm Glassnode reports. Also crabsinvestors holding up to 10 BTC are accumulating.

However, according to glassnode, whales are distributing and have mainly reduced their holdings last month and sent their BTC to exchanges. Yet it is a relatively small part in relation to their total bitcoin holdings, Glassnode reports.

Is bitcoin close to bottom?

Since the FTX crash, the market and analysts have been speculating a lot about the possible bottom of the BTC price. For example, analyst Willy Woo reports that the so-called MVRV indicator, which measures the ratio between market capitalization and invested capital, shows a possible bottom:

Analyst Bob Loukas seems convinced as the recent low of $15,500 was not the bottom of the 4-year cycle, the upcoming low in the next 60-day cycle is likely to be. That could be early January.

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